By Pietro Strada, Managing Partner | Published 7th August 2026 | H1 2026 edition
Silverpeak’s Software M&A report for H1 2026 finds a market that has split in two. Deal value rose, carried by a handful of AI mega deals, while deal count fell to its lowest level since 2021 and median valuation multiples slipped below their four-year averages. Drawing on more than 32,000 European and North American transactions from Capital IQ and PitchBook, this half-year analysis from Silverpeak LLP sets out what changed and what it means for founders, sponsors and strategic buyers.
Key findings
- Deal count fell to a period low while value concentrated at the top. Quarterly deal count dropped to 1,165, the lowest since 2021 and down from a recent high of 1,529. The value story runs the other way: five mega deals, led by SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI, carried the 2026 step-up. Below $1bn, H1 value was at its lowest since 2023 and disclosed deal count hit a period low. The recovery sits at the top of the market, not across it. AI uncertainty is keeping buyers on the sidelines.
- Multiples are re-rating alongside public comparables. Median EV/EBITDA for software M&A deals now stands at 11.1x against a 14.0x period average, with EV/Revenue at 2.2x against 2.7x. The “SaaSpocalypse”, a public-market sell-off driven by fears that agentic AI could disrupt seat-based SaaS, has flowed directly into private valuations. Sponsors are reassessing exit multiples and strategic buyers are revisiting build versus buy.
- European buyers took European assets, but only by value. European buyers accounted for 79% of European deal value over the last six months, against a 49% two-year average, as North American buyers pulled back from the largest European assets. By count nothing changed, at 74% European against a 75% average, so the shift is in value, not volume. Underneath all of it, AI has become a core diligence lens, testing capability, durable growth and defensibility.
Software M&A valuation multiples, H1 2026
| Multiple | H1 2026 | 2022 to H1 2026 average | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median EV/EBITDA | 11.1x | 14.0x | −2.9x (−21%) |
| Median EV/Revenue | 2.2x | 2.7x | −0.5x (−19%) |
What this means for software owners and buyers
Capital remains available to businesses that pair strong fundamentals with measurable AI traction: revenue, installed-base adoption and pricing less tied to headcount. The strongest moats combine deep workflow integration, proprietary data and mission-critical or regulated outcomes. As Managing Partner Pietro Strada puts it: “Investors are separating software that AI erodes from software that AI accelerates, and for the latter (mission-critical, data-rich and deeply embedded), conviction remains high.” Private equity and PE-backed buyers still hold around 59% of deal count and remain the volume engine of software M&A, while strategics are gaining at the top end, taking 11 of the 13 deals above $1bn in Q2 2026.
More from Silverpeak
Silverpeak advises technology growth companies on M&A transactions of €30-300m. Our technology M&A advisory work spans software, deep tech and digital services, and our track record in software transactions includes the sale of ScreenCloud to Tenzing and Rotageek to ELMO Software. For the previous edition of this analysis, see our Q4 2025 report on momentum building in software M&A; for the public-market picture behind these private valuations, see the Q2 2026 Software Benchmark Report.